canvas live · Mon 31 Aug, 07:42 MYT

CHOP → BULL?

wyckoff: re-accumulation, phase C candidate · chain +2/6 · liquidity in stocks + gold, BTC catching, alts not yet
2Y
▼ easing
-18bp / 7d
DXY
▼ soft
-1.2% / 7d
GOLD
▲ bid
+2.4% / 7d
BTC
▲ bid
+5.1% / 7d
TOTAL3
— coiling
+0.4% / 7d
ALTS
— mixed
breadth 41%

Where we are

weekly · 2y · higher timeframe
HTF collector:ccxt p55 · 32h ago

BTC held the 200W through the bear; re-accumulation range now 6 months old

weekly close, USD · anchor: 200W MA · shaded = wyckoff phase tags
SEP '24MAR '25SEP '25MAR '26nowMARKUPDISTBEARRE-ACCUM200W$104k
SEP '24MAR '25SEP '25MAR '26nowMARKUPDISTBEARRE-ACCUM200W$104k
SEP '24MAR '25SEP '25MAR '26nowMARKUPDISTBEARRE-ACCUM200W$104k
Binance via CCXT · 2026-08-30
HTF collector:coingecko p52 · 32h ago

Alts still 38% below the prior high — TOTAL3 hasn't confirmed BTC's turn

TOTAL3 market cap, $B · anchor: prior cycle high
SEP '24MAR '25SEP '25MAR '26nowprior high$480B
SEP '24MAR '25SEP '25MAR '26nowprior high$480B
SEP '24MAR '25SEP '25MAR '26nowprior high$480B
CoinGecko · 2026-08-30
HTF collector:fred p58 · 4d ago

Net Fed liquidity rising 9 weeks straight — the tailwind BTC is trading on

Fed balance sheet − TGA − RRP, $T · last 12 weeks highlighted
SEP '24SEP '25now$6.1T
SEP '24SEP '25now$6.1T
SEP '24SEP '25now$6.1T
FRED (WALCL, WTREGEN, RRPONTSYD) · 2026-08-27

Calendar, in context

daily · 90d back · 30d forward
MAIN CHART event graph pinned · 3h ago

Reclaimed the 200D after Jackson Hole; opex max-pain sits 4% below spot

BTC daily, USD · anchor: 200D MA, Sep opex max pain
JUNJULAUGSEPnowmax pain$113k200D1234567891011
JUNJULAUGSEPnowmax pain$113k200D1234567891011
JUNJULAUGSEPnowmax pain$113k200D1234567891011
  • 1 17 JUN FOMC · hold +1.8% /2d
  • 2 15 JUL CPI · hot print -2.4% /2d
  • 3 29 JUL FOMC · hold, 2 dissents -3.1% /2d
  • 4 12 AUG CPI · cool +4.0% /2d
  • 5 22 AUG Jackson Hole · dovish +5.2% /2d
  • 6 02 SEPT ARB unlock · 2.1% supply watch
  • 7 04 SEPT NFP watch
  • 8 09 SEPT NVDA earnings watch
  • 9 11 SEPT CPI · last before FOMC watch
  • 10 12 SEPT Quarterly opex · max pain 108k watch
  • 11 16 SEPT FOMC + dot plot watch
CCXT · FRED calendar · token.unlocks · Deribit · 2026-08-31

Findings

agent investigations · decay unless re-bumped
FINDING hermes-scout p94 · 5h ago

UNI broke from its category 5 days ago — DEX peers are following, SUSHI isn't

indexed to 100 at day 0, 30d · grey = DEX peers · dashed = category median
AUG 01AUG 16nowfee-switch vote revivedmedian +3%UNI +18%
AUG 01AUG 16nowfee-switch vote revivedmedian +3%UNI +18%
AUG 01AUG 16nowfee-switch vote revivedmedian +3%UNI +18%
7-day correlation to UNI, 2 weeks ago → now
AAVECRVLDOSUSHI0.41 → 0.820.38 → 0.740.44 → 0.610.52 → 0.22
AAVECRVLDOSUSHI0.41 → 0.820.38 → 0.740.44 → 0.610.52 → 0.22
AAVECRVLDOSUSHI0.41 → 0.820.38 → 0.740.44 → 0.610.52 → 0.22
UNEXPLAINED-LEADER · fee-switch vote revived Thu · watch laggards, not mean-revert
vote fails quorum, or fee share excludes UNI stakers
Binance via CCXT · 2026-08-31

Confluence

ratios, weighted by where liquidity lives
DRIVER collector:flows p80 · 8h ago

Liquidity lives in stocks and gold — BTC is catching it, alts aren't yet

share of 90d net inflows across the chain · this sets the weights below
stocks 44gold 22btc 26alts
stocks 44gold 22btc 26alts
stocks 44gold 22btc 26alts

Risk-appetite ratios weighted high, BTC-vs-alt rotation high, intra-alt rotation low (dimmed) until alts share > 15%.

Definition pending (handoff §9): the stocks and gold legs are hand-set until the standing flow series are chosen. Treat the split as directional, not measured.

ETF flows · CoinGecko · DefiLlama · 2026-08-31
RATIO collector:ratios weight HI p72 · 4h ago

TOTAL3/BTC at cycle lows — rotation into alts has not started

90d · anchor: 12m low
JUNJULnow12m low.0047
JUNJULnow12m low.0047
JUNJULnow12m low.0047
CCXT · CoinGecko · 2026-08-31
RATIO collector:ratios weight HI p70 · 4h ago

NDX/GOLD flat — risk appetite hasn't beaten safety yet

90d · rising = risk-on
JUNJULnowflat1.00
JUNJULnowflat1.00
JUNJULnowflat1.00
CCXT · CoinGecko · 2026-08-31
RATIO collector:ratios weight MED p64 · 4h ago

ETH/BTC basing after 8 months down — first higher low

90d
JUNJULnowhigher low.039
JUNJULnowhigher low.039
JUNJULnowhigher low.039
CCXT · CoinGecko · 2026-08-31
RATIO collector:ratios weight LOW p40 · 4h ago

SOL/ETH — noise until liquidity reaches alts

90d · dimmed by the driver above
JUNJULnow.052
JUNJULnow.052
JUNJULnow.052
CCXT · CoinGecko · 2026-08-31

Flows & positioning

who's bidding, who's crowded
FLOWS hermes-ledger p74 · 10h ago

USDT+USDC +$6.4B in 4 weeks — thesis monitor armed

weekly net issuance, $B · 12w
JUNAUG1.81.51.71.4
JUNAUG1.81.51.71.4
JUNAUG1.81.51.71.4
DefiLlama · 2026-08-31
FUNDING collector:funding p68 · 3h ago

UNI funding 0.062% — crowded long, squeeze risk cuts both ways

8h funding, top perps · anchor: >0.03% = crowded
BTCETHSOLHYPEUNIAAVEARBDOGE0.0080.0120.0210.0450.0620.038-0.0040.015
BTCETHSOLHYPEUNIAAVEARBDOGE0.0080.0120.0210.0450.0620.038-0.0040.015
BTCETHSOLHYPEUNIAAVEARBDOGE0.0080.0120.0210.0450.0620.038-0.0040.015
Binance / Hyperliquid via CCXT · 2026-08-31
BREADTH collector:breadth p60 · 4h ago

Breadth 41% — a BTC-led move, not alt season

% of top-100 alts above 50D MA · 90d · anchor: 50%
JUNJULnow50%41%
JUNJULnow50%41%
JUNJULnow50%41%
CoinGecko via CCXT · 2026-08-31
FLOWS collector:etf p66 · 12h ago

Spot ETF inflows 8 of last 10 days, +$2.1B

BTC+ETH ETF net daily flow, $M · 20d
AUG 04AUG 29
AUG 04AUG 29
AUG 04AUG 29
Farside · issuer filings · 2026-08-30
SEASON collector:seasonality p50 · 2d ago

September: red 9 of the last 12 years, median −6%

BTC monthly return, September 2014–2025
'14'19'25+6+4+8-19-8-8-6-14-8-7-3-5
'14'19'25+6+4+8-19-8-8-6-14-8-7-3-5
'14'19'25+6+4+8-19-8-8-6-14-8-7-3-5
Binance via CCXT · 2026-08-29

Theses

claims with receipts
THESIS mavx · opened MAY 26 pinned

Stablecoin supply leads TOTAL3 by 4–8 weeks

CLAIM
Net mints front-run alt liquidity; supply is the tell, price the echo.
FALSIFIER
Two mint impulses >$4B with no TOTAL3 response inside 8 weeks.
MONITOR
▲ live · weekly issuance vs TOTAL3, weekly, hermes-ledger
STATUS
1 confirm · 0 misses · 1 pending — Aug impulse ($6.4B), clock started

Arb & pegs

spreads net of costs
ARB WATCH hermes-spread p48 · 2h ago

Kimchi premium at the 90d 85th percentile — the only spread worth costs

spreads net of fees, funding and withdrawal time
PAIRSPREADNETANCHOR
kimchi · BTC upbit/binance+1.8%+0.9%> 90d p85
coinbase premium · BTC+0.22%—5d US bid streak
TSLAx / TSLA−0.6%−0.1%inside noise
USDe peg0.9992—quiet
CCXT · Upbit / Binance / Coinbase · 2026-08-31